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Thailand Votes Sunday With Reformists Leading in Three-Way Race

Post-election bargaining looks decisive, with a constitutional referendum also on the ballot.

Overview

  • Surveys from Suan Dusit University and NIDA show the People's Party and leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut ahead, with Bhumjaithai and Pheu Thai trailing.
  • Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul leans on nationalist messaging after Thai–Cambodian border clashes that killed at least 149 people, seeking to bolster Bhumjaithai’s leverage.
  • No party is expected to secure a majority, and the next prime minister will be chosen by the 500-member House without the appointed Senate’s vote, which lapsed in 2024.
  • Voters will also decide whether to authorize drafting a new constitution to replace the 2017 charter written under military rule.
  • Legal risks persist for reformists as the NACC probes 44 former Move Forward lawmakers, including key People's Party figures, in a case that could lead to bans if sent to the Supreme Court.