Overview
- On Aug. 6, sportsbooks and analytic projections listed Texas Tech as the conference favorite and projected the Red Raiders for about 10.6 wins after last season’s Big 12 title and College Football Playoff berth.
- The Big 12 enters 2026 with an unusually high number of new head coaches and staff hires, including Eric Morris at Oklahoma State, Collin Klein at Kansas State, Jimmy Rogers at Iowa State and Morgan Scalley promoted at Utah.
- Betting markets released in early August flagged specific value plays: Utah’s season total priced at 8.5 wins looks bettable given continuity under Scalley and returning QB Devon Dampier, and TCU’s 6.5 win total is attractive after adding Harvard transfer Jaden Craig.
- Oklahoma State’s overhaul—Morris plus key transfers from North Texas such as QB Drew Mestemaker, RB Caleb Hawkins and WR Wyatt Young—has pushed the Cowboys into sleeper conversations but also leaves open transition risk.
- The Big 12’s recent history of rapid shifts means preseason lines chiefly reflect short‑term factors like coaching changes, quarterback turnover and portal activity, so markets and analysts expect volatility once games begin.