Overview
- Ken Paxton secured the Republican nomination in the runoff Tuesday with strong backing from President Trump, setting up a general election matchup that national forecasters now view as far more competitive than before.
- James Talarico reported more than $3 million raised in the 24 hours after Paxton’s primary win, a surge his campaign says will fuel early advertising and outreach to independents and disaffected Republicans.
- A Texas Public Opinion Research poll conducted May 27–28 showed Talarico ahead 47% to 44% while prediction markets such as Kalshi swung in Paxton’s favor, illustrating rapid and conflicting signals about who is favored in November.
- Republicans have shifted to culture-war messaging that highlights Talarico’s past comments on gender and religion and deploys nicknames like “Talafreako,” and Talarico has both qualified some past remarks and embraced the taunt in campaign merchandise.
- Democrats are leaning on Paxton’s long history of legal and ethics controversies — including a 2015 securities indictment, a 2023 impeachment and reports of corruption probes — and the Cook Political Report has moved the seat closer, prompting national parties to weigh large spending decisions.