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Texas Senate Race Tight as Paxton Holds Narrow Edge in New Poll

The close numbers raise the odds of heavy national spending, putting independent voters and party unity at the center of the contest.

U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett, D-Dallas, and U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.
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Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton walks outside the U.S. Capitol building on Capitol Hill, in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 3, 2026.
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Overview

  • A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll released Tuesday shows Ken Paxton at 43% and James Talarico at 42% with a roughly 3.5-point margin of error, a gap that most recent surveys also describe as a statistical dead heat.
  • Republican consolidation after Paxton’s May runoff win is clear in the poll, with 84% of self-identified GOP voters saying they would back Paxton compared with 5% who say they would back Talarico.
  • Independent voters break strongly for Talarico in the survey, with about 40% supporting him and roughly 12% supporting Paxton, making independents a decisive swing constituency for November.
  • Campaigns are escalating: Talarico is holding national fundraisers and running TV ads aimed at moderates and independents while the Paxton campaign is airing attack commercials on Talarico’s record and highlighting his past legal and impeachment controversies.
  • The matchup has been nationalized since Paxton’s Trump-backed primary upset over John Cornyn, which has prompted party rescue efforts on both sides and signals a likely expensive, closely watched general election that will hinge on turnout and coalition-building.