Overview
- Multiple recent independent polls show Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton essentially tied, making the race a nationally watched contest.
- Talarico has spent more than $3 million on broadcast TV since early June and is campaigning in North Texas with an affordability message focused on groceries, health care and housing.
- Paxton has spent roughly $29,000 on TV since June while running mostly digital ads as he rebuilds his campaign cash after an expensive May runoff.
- Senate GOP leaders who backed John Cornyn have not launched a major coordinated rescue for Paxton and party officials are looking to President Trump and MAGA-aligned funds for large outside support.
- The outcome will likely turn on turnout from independents, suburban women and minority voters and on coming finance reports plus GOP plans for a September convention in Dallas that could signal outside spending levels.