Overview
- A New York Times/Siena poll published Tuesday, June 30, found Ken Paxton and James Talarico tied at 47 percent among likely Texas voters, and other recent measures show margins inside the polls' error ranges.
- Polls show sharp splits by gender, age, race and independents with Paxton stronger among men and older white voters and Talarico leading with women, younger voters and Hispanic voters, making turnout the decisive factor.
- Democrats are pressing advantages in perceptions of character and morals for Talarico while Republicans are highlighting Paxton’s long record of legal and ethical controversies, including a securities-related indictment and a 2023 impeachment by the Texas House.
- Talarico faces attacks over past remarks on religion and gender that Republicans are using to blunt his appeal and Democratic strategists warn low enthusiasm among Black voters after the party’s primary could hurt turnout for him in November.
- The race has nationalized with President Trump’s endorsement of Paxton and both parties moving money and ads into Texas because the seat is seen as pivotal for the Senate majority and likely to draw heavy outside spending.