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2d ago

Texas Senate Race Deadlocked as Emerson/Nexstar Poll Shows Paxton, Talarico Neck and Neck

The one‑point survey places the contest inside the poll’s margin of error, heightening the importance of fundraising, debate agreements, turnout, outside spending

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Texas Gov. Greg Abbott speaks at a news conference in Lubbock, Texas, on Aug. 11, 2026, announcing his student safety initiative to prevent school educators from engaging in improper relationships with students.
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Overview

  • The Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey released Aug. 13 shows Republican Ken Paxton at 47% and Democrat James Talarico at 46%, a gap inside the poll’s ±3 point margin of error and leaving the race effectively tied.
  • Paxton has publicly asked for donations on national television to close a cash gap after a costly Republican runoff, while Talarico spent heavily with an early fundraising advantage that funded statewide ads.
  • A proposed Sept. 22 debate hosted by Hearst and NBC/Telemundo passed its agreement deadline without a Paxton commitment, and the Paxton campaign says it is negotiating terms with outlets rather than accepting preset formats.
  • Paxton has consolidated high‑profile Republican backing, including President Donald Trump and 18 House Republicans, even as some Texas GOP members remain uncommitted and his legal and personal controversies continue to be a campaign liability.
  • Voter groups are sharply divided by age and demographics—Emerson finds under‑50 voters favor Talarico while over‑50 voters favor Paxton—which makes turnout, late advertising and outside spending likely decisive for control of the Senate.