Overview
- Multiple recent polls and forecasters now rate the contest as a toss-up, with Democrat James Talarico holding narrow leads in several surveys and gaining name recognition through heavy TV advertising.
- Talarico and allied Democratic groups have vastly outspent Paxton on broadcast ads since June, with AdImpact data showing roughly $31 million in Democratic buys versus under $5 million for Republicans.
- Paxton’s campaign has spent almost no TV money and entered the general election cash‑strapped after a costly May runoff that drained resources.
- Republican senators and operatives have publicly urged President Trump to deploy large sums — figures as high as $100 million to $200 million were mentioned — but MAGA Inc. has not publicly committed that scale of spending even after Trump’s fundraiser in Houston last week.
- In response to pressure, several conservative outside groups have placed new TV reservations totaling roughly $22 million and Lone Star Liberty announced a separate $15 million buy, but establishment reluctance tied to Paxton’s past scandals continues to complicate unified GOP support.