Overview
- A J. L. Partners survey of 600 likely voters conducted Jan. 31–Feb. 2 shows Ken Paxton at 27.0%, Wesley Hunt at 25.7% and John Cornyn at 25.5%, with 21.7% undecided and a ±4-point margin of error.
- Hunt leads head-to-head matchups against Paxton (44%–34%) and Cornyn (44%–33%) and posts the highest net favorability at 42%, compared with 27% for Paxton and 14% for Cornyn.
- If Hunt exited the race, the poll indicates Paxton would hold a narrow edge over Cornyn, 41% to 40%, underscoring volatile second-choice dynamics.
- Cornyn’s allies have already spent tens of millions of dollars and are planning roughly $10 million more in late advertising, yet the new polling shows the incumbent at risk of finishing third.
- President Trump has not endorsed in the race, and Paxton’s Super PAC has begun targeting Hunt, as the March 3 primary sets up a likely May 26 runoff for the top two finishers.