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Texas Democrat’s 14-Point Upset in Deep-Red Senate District Spurs GOP Soul-Searching

Analysts cite a turnout collapse paired with backlash to school-board culture wars as decisive factors.

Overview

  • Democrat Taylor Rehmet defeated Republican Leigh Wambsganss by roughly 14 points on Jan. 31, flipping a district President Donald Trump carried by 17 points in 2024.
  • GOP figures, including consultant Allen Blakemore, blamed a steep Republican no-show for the loss, with about 95,000 total ballots cast in a roughly 15% turnout runoff.
  • Voters and commentators pointed to frustration with Patriot Mobile–aligned school-board activism and book restrictions as a reason some Republicans and independents broke from the GOP.
  • Rehmet emphasized public school funding, health care and lowering costs, while Wambsganss ran on culture-war themes and later faulted voters, the weather and others for the defeat.
  • Rehmet will hold the seat until a November rematch with Wambsganss, and analysts caution that a higher-turnout general election could produce a different result.