Overview
- Texas Education Commissioner Mike Morath told lawmakers Monday that public schools serve roughly 75,000 fewer students this year, a 1.4% slide to below 5.5 million that is the biggest drop since the pandemic.
- Texas 2036 reported that Hispanic students accounted for about 81% of the loss and that elementary grades drove roughly 60% of the decline, signaling a thinner pipeline for future middle and high schools.
- Morath said the state cannot pinpoint a single cause, while reports cite lower birth rates, shifts in migration, exits to private or out-of-state schools and homeschooling, and the launch of a new voucher program.
- Districts are cutting programs and closing schools, with Austin ISD set to shutter 10 campuses and Fort Worth weighing more, as TEA acknowledged it does not yet track closures and plans to improve data next year.
- Outlooks differ on what comes next, with Texas 2036 projecting about 100,000 fewer students by 2030 and demographer Bob Templeton warning the loss could approach 500,000 within five years.