Tesla Q1 Deliveries Miss as Production Tops Sales, Signaling Inventory Build

Overview

• Treasury numbers for the quarter showed 358,023 deliveries versus a 365,000 Wall Street forecast, with 408,386 vehicles produced.
• The 50,363 gap between production and deliveries is the widest in about four years and points to rising unsold inventory.
• China-made sales accelerated, with CPCA counting 85,670 Shanghai-built Model 3 and Y in March and a 23.5% year-over-year rise for Q1.
• Market share has slipped in key regions as rivals gain ground, with Europe weaker last year and China’s EV share down from 10% in 2024 to 8%.
• TSLA is down about 21% this year as analysts split on the outlook, with a $460 consensus target implying near-28% upside and Goldman Sachs noting progress on the Optimus humanoid robot.