Overview
- Tesla, which on Thursday published a company-compiled Wall Street consensus, now pegs first-quarter deliveries at 365,645 vehicles and full-year 2026 at about 1.69 million.
- The Q1 figure would be about 8% above last year’s transition-hit quarter but below Q4’s 418,227, suggesting the vehicle run rate remains under pressure.
- Prediction markets and some banks are more cautious, with Polymarket odds favoring under 350,000 deliveries and UBS cutting its estimate to roughly 345,000 on softer demand.
- RBC is a notable outlier with a 367,000 forecast and a modest year-over-year gain, as the firm frames Q1 as a cleaner test of demand after U.S. EV tax credits expired in September.
- Context for the shift is mounting: 2025 deliveries fell to 1.64 million as automotive revenue declined, energy revenue rose 27% to $12.8 billion, regulators widened an FSD probe to about 3.2 million vehicles, and Tesla will report official Q1 totals on April 2 with Cybercab manufacturing still slated for 2026.