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TD Cowen Cuts Lowe’s Target as Home Depot Raises Dividend in Pro-Focused Housing Slump

High mortgage rates keep big-ticket DIY spending under pressure.

Overview

  • TD Cowen lowered Lowe’s price target to $280 and maintained a hold rating, citing softer near-term revenue and margin expectations and the need for clearer signs of DIY recovery.
  • Lowe’s set fiscal 2026 sales guidance at $92 billion to $94 billion with comparable sales flat to up 2%, emphasizing Pro growth via Pro Extended Aisle, a larger sales force, job-site delivery staging, and an AI Pro Companion tool.
  • Home Depot approved a 1.3% increase to its quarterly dividend to $2.33 per share ($9.32 annualized) and reaffirmed capital priorities that place reinvestment and the dividend ahead of buybacks.
  • Home Depot’s CFO Richard McPhail said the company expects to resume share repurchases in the first half of 2027 once debt is reduced.
  • Both retailers continue to see weakness in larger discretionary projects as low housing turnover and mortgage rates near 6%–7% restrain demand, with Home Depot noting about 70% of mortgages carry rates below 5%.