Overview
- Filing began January 26, and the IRS expects about 164 million returns; clean e-filed returns with direct deposit are targeted for refunds within roughly 21 days.
- The White House and analysts project materially larger refunds, with estimates of increases around $1,000 on average and an average near $3,800, partly due to unchanged 2025 withholding.
- New, retroactive provisions for 2025 include a $2,200 Child Tax Credit, deductions for tips (up to $25,000) and overtime (up to $12,500), a higher SALT cap ($40,000), up to $10,000 in auto-loan interest for qualifying U.S.-made vehicles, and an extra $6,000 senior deduction, claimed via new Schedule 1‑A.
- Paper refund checks are being phased out under a 2025 executive order, so most refunds will be delivered electronically; mailed refunds and paper-filed returns are expected to take longer.
- The National Taxpayer Advocate and other watchdogs caution that extensive law changes and a 27% workforce decline to roughly 74,000 employees raise the risk of errors, extra correspondence, and delays for returns that require review, though most straightforward e-filed returns should proceed normally.