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Tax Season 2026: Early IRS Data Show Bigger Refunds, Uneven Outcomes

Preliminary filings point to a 10.9% jump in average refunds.

Overview

  • Early IRS figures show an average refund of $2,290 as of Feb. 6, up 10.9% from a similar point last year, with larger payments expected after Feb. 27 when EITC and Additional CTC refunds begin.
  • Treasury’s Scott Bessent said refunds were up 22%, though the comparison window behind that figure was not clarified.
  • Despite higher averages overall, some filers may get smaller refunds due to underwithholding from multiple jobs or raises, or from capital gains on home, stock or crypto sales.
  • Families can see refunds shrink when a child turns 17 because the enhanced Child Tax Credit drops from $2,200 to roughly $500 per child.
  • Refunds can be offset to repay government debts such as child support or student loans, and while many middle‑ to upper‑middle‑income homeowners in high‑tax states may benefit from the higher $40,000 SALT cap, a Treasury inspector warns IRS staffing strains could slow processing.