Overview
- The official tax estimate released Thursday projects €17.8 billion less revenue in 2026 and €87.5 billion less from 2026 to 2030 for federal, state and local governments, with the federal share down about €52.3 billion.
- Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil linked the downgrade to the Iran war and the energy price shock, saying the conflict is hurting growth and that the state is not a crisis winner.
- For the 2027 plan, the Finance Ministry now expects the federal budget to face an extra €10.1 billion shortfall versus the autumn outlook, with a cabinet draft due in early July and ministries ordered to file savings plans by May 20.
- The coalition is preparing options that include spending cuts and new revenue, with higher alcohol and tobacco duties under discussion, a plastic levy planned, and a draft law proposing a sugar‑sweetened drink charge from 2028 worth about €450 million a year for health insurance.
- The forecast comes from the Arbeitskreis Steuerschätzung, a twice‑yearly panel of government, economic institutes, the statistics office, the Bundesbank and regional representatives whose figures set the basis for federal, state and municipal budgets; industry groups urged spending restraint and pro‑growth reforms, while unions pressed for higher contributions from the wealthy.