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Target Forecasts 2026 Return to Growth After Q4 Sales Slip, Beats on Profit

New CEO Michael Fiddelke signaled a turnaround through positive February sales alongside a $2 billion investment plan.

Overview

  • Q4 2025 net sales declined 1.5% to $30.45 billion and comparable sales fell 2.5%, while adjusted EPS of $2.44 topped expectations.
  • Full-year 2025 net sales fell 1.7% to $104.78 billion, with management guiding to roughly 2% net sales growth and $7.50–$8.50 EPS in 2026.
  • Target expects sales growth in every 2026 quarter, citing a return to positive sales in February as an early indicator of progress.
  • The company outlined more than $2 billion of incremental 2026 investments, including over $1 billion in capex for 30+ new stores, 130+ remodels, supply chain and technology such as AI-driven personalization, plus added store payroll and training.
  • Category trends were mixed as beauty, food and toys grew and non‑merchandise revenue rose over 25% (ads, memberships, marketplace), while apparel, home, hardlines and household essentials declined; gross margin improved to 26.6% on lower shrink and logistics costs.