Tarcísio Signals He Will Stay in Republicanos as Party Builds 2026 Campaign Structure

Overview

• Advisers put the chance of Tarcísio remaining in Republicanos at about 90%, and his office says he continues in the party even as the PL keeps pressing for his affiliation.
• Republicanos has hired the PLTK political communications agency and commissioned research to prepare a potential presidential bid in 2026.
• PSD president Gilberto Kassab says the party will support Tarcísio, criticizes his self-presentation as a Bolsonarist, and urges a center-right positioning while keeping fallback options if he does not run for president.
• A RealTime BigData poll conducted Nov. 29–Dec. 1 shows Tarcísio leading São Paulo reelection scenarios, with 49% to Fernando Haddad’s 22% in one tested matchup.
• Strategists warn that joining the PL could hinder a moderate national campaign given the party’s high rejection rates, a concern underscored by survey data cited in the reporting and contrasted with PL leader Valdemar Costa Neto’s claim that Tarcísio would join if he runs for president.