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1h ago

Talks Stall as Trump Cancels Envoy Trip and Iran Refuses Negotiations Under Blockade

Investors now see almost no chance of a quick deal, with oil cushioned by stockpiles and slower buying.

U.S. forces patrol the Arabian Sea near M/V Touska, April 20, as the Iranian-flagged vessel's container cargo is searched after U.S. Marines boarded and seized the ship when it attempted to violate the U.S. naval blockade.
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Overview

  • President Trump canceled a planned envoy visit to Pakistan and said he will not renew the ceasefire without Iranian concessions, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian told Pakistan that Tehran will not negotiate under a U.S. naval blockade, signaling a hard stop to near‑term diplomacy.
  • Maritime risks climbed after Iran seized two container ships near the Strait of Hormuz, while U.S. Central Command said it intercepted an Iran‑linked vessel in the Arabian Sea.
  • Prediction markets plunged, with odds of a permanent peace deal or a nuclear agreement by April 30 falling to about 3% and the chance of any Trump‑Iran meeting by month‑end near zero.
  • Oil held near $95 a barrel rather than spiking to doomsday levels, which analysts at Goldman Sachs attribute to prewar inventories, destocking, and a pause in spot buying, even as corporate costs rise and Gulf economies strain.