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13h ago

Talarico’s Internal Poll Shows Narrow Leads as Paxton–Cornyn Runoff Looms

The May 26 Republican runoff will decide Talarico’s opponent, with mixed surveys and a potential Trump endorsement introducing uncertainty.

Texas state Rep. James Talarico, D-Austin, a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate, speaks at a primary election watch party Tuesday, March 3, 2026, in Austin, Texas. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
AUSTIN, TEXAS - MARCH 03: Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) speaks to members of the media at the Austin Marriott Downtown on March 03, 2026 in Austin, Texas. Early results indicate a runoff race between Cornyn and opponent Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate, greets supporters during a campaign stop, in Waco, Texas, Monday, March 2, 2026. Tony Gutierrez/AP

Overview

  • An Impact Research poll commissioned by James Talarico reports him ahead of John Cornyn 43% to 41% and Ken Paxton 44% to 43% among 900 likely 2026 Texas voters surveyed March 12–17 (±3.3 points).
  • Cornyn and Paxton advanced to a May 26 GOP runoff after neither secured a majority in the March primary, setting up the contest to face Talarico in November.
  • Independent polling shows Paxton with a slight edge in the GOP contest, including Change Research at 42% to 39% over Cornyn with 16% undecided and PPP at 45% to 42%.
  • The Talarico campaign’s poll also finds likely GOP runoff voters prefer Paxton over Cornyn 53% to 37% and shows Paxton with stronger favorability among those voters.
  • Trump posted that he will make an endorsement soon and urged the non-endorsed candidate to drop out, a move polls suggest could shift the runoff margin.