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3w ago

Talarico Takes Lead in Texas Senate Race as Paxton Seeks Help From Trump

Talarico’s fundraising and TV-buy advantage has turned the traditionally Republican seat competitive with the outcome hinging on whether national super PACs and GOP donors inject late spending

U.S. Sen. John Cornyn leaves a press conference after conceding to Republican candidate for U.S. Senate Ken Paxton after polls closed for the Texas primary runoff election in Austin, on May 26, 2026.
James Talarico speaks at a press conference in Austin, Texas, on July 22, 2026.
Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico, left, and Republican U.S. Senate candidate Ken Paxton are seen in Getty photos. (Photos by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
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Overview

  • A Texas Public Opinion Research poll published Aug. 27 shows Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton by six points, 48% to 42%, with independents and younger voters breaking strongly for Talarico.
  • Talarico has outraised and outspent Paxton by a wide margin, reporting roughly $72 million to Paxton’s $16.8 million and spending heavily on statewide television and streaming ads that have built his name recognition.
  • Sen. John Cornyn has publicly declined to raise money for Paxton and called him a “poor campaigner,” underscoring persistent GOP elite reluctance that has left Paxton dependent on national help.
  • President Trump traveled to Houston to fundraise for Paxton and has pledged active support, but major pro‑Trump super PACs with large war chests have not yet committed substantial spending in Texas.
  • Talarico has begun running his first major negative TV ad attacking Paxton over corruption and the 2023 impeachment, signaling a shift from biographical messaging to direct attacks as the race tightens.