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5h ago

Talarico Holds Narrow Polling Edge Over Paxton in Tight Texas Senate Race

Repeated slim leads in public surveys highlight Talarico’s fundraising and independent support while Paxton faces donor shortfalls and reputational liabilities that keep the outcome uncertain.

U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico speaks during a town hall meeting at Kingdom Builders Center in Houston on July 19, 2026.
AUSTIN, TEXAS - JULY 22: Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico speaks during a press conference at the Hyatt Centric Congress Avenue on July 22, 2026 in Austin, Texas. The discussion comes as data centers have emerged as a major political issue in Texas, with Gov. Greg Abbott calling for stronger oversight of their expansion.
Texas state Representative James Talarico is neck-and-neck with his Republican opponent in a trio of recent polls. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)
James Talarico

Overview

  • The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center poll released Tuesday shows James Talarico at 47% and Ken Paxton at 45%, marking the third consecutive public survey to give Talarico a small lead that falls within or near most polls’ margins of error.
  • The TSU survey and other recent polls show sharp demographic splits with Talarico winning Black and Latino voters and independents while Paxton retains an advantage with white voters.
  • Talarico has a large fundraising edge, raising roughly $30 million last quarter compared with about $9 million for Paxton, a gap that has funded widespread advertising and outreach for the Democrat.
  • Paxton continues to carry high-profile legal and ethics baggage from a 2015 securities case and a 2023 impeachment and also faces lingering party division and hesitation from some Cornyn-aligned donors.
  • The race matters nationally because a Democratic pickup in Texas would affect Senate control, and the final result will hinge on turnout, outside spending, debate performances and whether Republican donors coalesce behind Paxton before early voting begins in October.