Overview
- This week several major surveys showed Democrat James Talarico narrowly ahead of Republican Ken Paxton, including a Fox News result of about 51% to 48%, a Wedgewood Polls result of 48% to 46%, and a Texas Southern University survey at 47% to 45%.
- CNN data analyst Harry Enten and other pollsters point to a large shift among independent voters as the main driver of Talarico’s movement in the polls, with independents reporting substantial preference for the Democrat in recent samples.
- Paxton’s long‑running legal and ethics problems remain central to his weak favorability, with reporting noting a 2015 securities indictment resolved through a diversion agreement and a 2023 impeachment the state Senate did not sustain.
- Fundraising so far favors Talarico, who reported roughly $30 million raised in the cycle to Paxton’s roughly $9 million last quarter, but Republican strategists say national donors and large outside ad buys could still change the dynamics before November.
- The race has national stakes for control of the U.S. Senate and remains volatile because leads are small, within some margins of error, and will depend on turnout among independents, white and Latino voters, and the flow of outside spending.