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11h ago

Talarico Holds Narrow Lead Over Paxton in Tight Texas Senate Race

Three independent late‑July polls show a slim Democratic edge that could make Texas a competitive pickup for control of the U.S. Senate.

AUSTIN, TEXAS - JULY 22: Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico speaks during a press conference at the Hyatt Centric Congress Avenue on July 22, 2026 in Austin, Texas. The discussion comes as data centers have emerged as a major political issue in Texas, with Gov. Greg Abbott calling for stronger oversight of their expansion.
James Talarico
Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico speaks at a campaign rally in Laredo, Texas, last month. Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images
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Overview

  • The latest survey from Texas Southern University's Barbara Jordan center, released Tuesday, puts Democrat James Talarico at 47% and Republican Ken Paxton at 45% but notes the gap is within the poll’s ±2.8-point margin of error.
  • Those results follow two other late‑July polls — Fox News and Texas Public Opinion Research — giving Talarico small leads and creating a run of three consecutive polls favoring the Democrat.
  • The TSU poll shows sharp demographic splits with Talarico winning large margins among Black and Latino voters and independents while Paxton leads among white voters, making turnout among these groups decisive.
  • Talarico’s campaign reported a large fundraising edge last quarter, roughly $30 million to Paxton’s $9 million, while national Republican operatives are preparing major ad buys and outside spending to try to close the gap.
  • Paxton remains burdened by past legal and ethics controversies that have depressed his favorability and his campaign has dismissed the polls as premature; a Democratic win would be the first statewide pickup in Texas since 1988.