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Talarico Holds Narrow Lead Over Paxton in Tight Texas Senate Race

Polls show a shift by independent voters that could change the contest but leaves the outcome hinging on turnout, outside spending and debates.

Democratic U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico speaks during a press conference at the Hyatt Centric Congress Avenue on July 22, 2026 in Austin, Texas.
FILE PHOTO: A voter waits in line to cast their ballot during the midterm elections, in McAllen, Texas, U.S., November 8, 2022.

Overview

  • Two independent polls released Friday show Democrat James Talarico ahead by about three to four points over Republican Ken Paxton with results that lie at or near each survey's margin of error.
  • The 254 Labs survey of 1,001 registered voters found Talarico 48% to Paxton 45% while the Texas Pulse survey of 619 likely voters put Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 43%.
  • Both polls show a large swing among independent voters—Talarico leads independents roughly 53–57% to 23–30%—and pollsters say that move explains most of his gains since June.
  • The race remains split by region and issues: Talarico leads among women and in Austin and Dallas–Fort Worth, Paxton is stronger in rural areas and retains an advantage on border security.
  • Beyond polling, structural factors that could decide the outcome include Talarico's fundraising edge, Paxton's legal and ethics controversies that have slowed his fundraising, and expected outside spending and debates before early voting begins.