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yesterday

Talarico Holds Five-Point Lead Over Paxton in New Texas Senate Poll

The shift could signal a viable Democratic path in a statewide race that remains unsettled by undecided voters and outside forces.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton celebrates winning the Republican U.S. Senate primary on May 26, 2026, in Plano.
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From left: Ken Paxton and James Talarico, the respective Republican and Democratic nominees for Texas' U.S. Senate seat.
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Overview

  • TPOR released the poll Tuesday showing James Talarico at 45% and Ken Paxton at 40% in a survey of 1,048 likely Texas voters fielded July 15–17 with a ±3.4-point margin of error.
  • The poll reports the five-point gap as larger than its margin of error and credits Talarico’s edge to gains with independents, moderates and voters without four-year degrees.
  • Talarico leads overwhelmingly with Black and Latino voters while Paxton maintains a strong advantage with white voters, and about 14% of respondents remain undecided with more of that group leaning toward Paxton.
  • Affordability tops voters’ issue list in the poll and respondents say Talarico better understands and is more trusted to address cost concerns, a seven-to-nine point advantage that helps explain his polling gains.
  • Despite the TPOR result, Cook still rates the seat Lean Republican and the race remains volatile because of Paxton’s legal and ethics controversies, large outside spending and more than three months before early voting begins on Oct. 19.