Overview
- MUST’s annual review names Russia the main threat to Sweden and NATO, calling the danger serious and concrete and Moscow’s behavior opportunistic and aggressive.
- The report cites airspace violations, sabotage and cyber operations as recent hostile activity in Sweden’s neighborhood, including the Baltic Sea.
- Sweden’s intelligence chief Thomas Nilsson says Russia has stepped up actions near Sweden with a greater risk appetite as the security picture keeps deteriorating.
- MUST says a Russian reinforcement of the Baltic Sea region has already begun, with the tempo shaped by the Ukraine war, Russia’s economy and its ties with China.
- Estonia reports a 17-fold surge in Russian artillery production while NATO officials say Article 5 credibility and higher defense spending, including 3.5% pledges, underpin deterrence and reduce near-term attack risk.