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Swalwell’s Collapse Reorders California Governor’s Race as New Poll Puts GOP on Top

Republican leads are raising pressure for Democrats to consolidate.

Overview

  • A new Emerson College poll taken after Eric Swalwell exited shows Steve Hilton at 17% and Chad Bianco at 14%, with Tom Steyer at 14% among Democrats, Katie Porter at 10% and Xavier Becerra at 10%, and 23% of voters undecided.
  • Becerra posted the biggest Democratic gain, jumping from low single digits to 10%, which analysts say reflects second-choice support from former Swalwell backers now reassessing the field.
  • Swalwell left the governor’s race and resigned from Congress after multiple women accused him of sexual assault and misconduct; he denies criminal wrongdoing, and probes by the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department, the Manhattan District Attorney, and reported federal investigators are underway.
  • Democratic campaigns are rushing to capture dislodged support, with fresh ads, donor pushes and Bay Area outreach, including a $3 million buy from San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and new small-dollar interest for Becerra.
  • The episode has spotlighted how years of whisper-network warnings met formal reporting, with creators like Arielle Fodor and Cheyenne Hunt helping surface accusers, as outlets from the Los Angeles Times to Politico, Fox News and Townhall debate why the rumors stayed unreported and what accountability now looks like.