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Swalwell Edges Ahead as California Democrats Fund Public Polling Push in Crowded Governor’s Race

Party leaders seek to steer low‑performing contenders out to prevent a two‑Republican November under the top‑two rules.

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California Democratic Party Chair Rusty Hicks announced Tuesday that the party is spending “multiple six figures” to conduct and post six surveys of the race for governor.
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Overview

  • An Emerson College/Inside California Politics poll conducted March 7–9 shows Eric Swalwell at 17%, Steve Hilton 13%, Chad Bianco and Tom Steyer 11% each, and Katie Porter 8%, with 25% of likely voters undecided.
  • Eight Democrats and two Republicans have filed for the June 2 primary, and the secretary of state plans to publish the certified candidate list by March 21 under the state’s top‑two system.
  • The California Democratic Party will spend multiple six figures on six publicly released polls, beginning March 24, to gauge viability and potentially pressure weaker campaigns to withdraw.
  • The party says Los Angeles‑based Evitarus, a Black‑ and Latino‑led firm, will conduct the surveys and oversample Latino, Black and AAPI voters to ensure broader representation.
  • Analysts and party models estimate roughly a mid‑20s percent chance that both Republicans advance, a scenario Democrats warn could depress turnout and affect competitive House races.