Overview
- USDA export reports for the week ending June 18 showed heavy demand with 455,405 metric tons of old‑crop soybeans and 902,159 MT of new‑crop soybeans, 504,489 MT of wheat, and 743,097 MT of old‑crop corn, a pattern that lifted near‑term price pressure.
- Futures moved sharply this week as soybeans rallied into Thursday then fell on Friday, a swing amplified by steep drops in open interest and July options expirations that concentrated trading around month‑end delivery dates.
- Crop progress data put U.S. soybeans 93% emerged with 66% rated good or excellent, but NOAA forecasts show limited near‑term rain in parts of the Corn Belt and a drier 8–14 day outlook, keeping July–August yield risk front of mind.
- EIA weekly ethanol data showed production slipping to about 1.09 million barrels per day with higher stocks, which reduces a near‑term corn demand driver, while the IGC raised 2026/27 world corn output and global corn stocks.
- Livestock signals were mixed as USDA’s June 1 Hogs and Pigs report showed hog inventories essentially flat at 73.664 million head, and USDA APHIS confirmed three new screwworm cases in Terrell County, Texas, a developing animal‑health risk that has already tightened cattle flows.