Overview
- A CSIS satellite-analysis released by multiple outlets on Sept. 9 documents a clear 2026 surge in construction and exterior hardening at the underground Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz.
- CSIS analysts assess the work is likely intended to create a protected site for centrifuge assembly, enrichment preparation, or other nuclear-related tasks but warn the facility may not yet be enrichment-capable.
- Federal records show the Defense Threat Reduction Agency filed an emergency $1.2 million justification on Feb. 27 to repair a subterranean test facility at White Sands, and satellite imagery captured excavation there in mid-February to March as U.S. planners sought ways to test deep-penetration effects.
- Analysts say Pickaxe’s granite depth—estimated far deeper than some previously struck sites—limits the effectiveness of current non‑nuclear bunker-busters, prompting Pentagon efforts to design a next‑generation penetrator while U.S. forces keep strike options on the table.
- President Trump’s public threat to “may hit Pickaxe very soon” increases the risk of escalation even as imagery and open sources cannot confirm subterranean activity, a gap that complicates targeting, raises regional tensions, and could affect shipping, energy markets and prospects for diplomacy.