Overview
- By July 17, satellite maps and multi‑model forecasts showed a very strong El Niño in the tropical Pacific and an emerging cool anomaly in the eastern equatorial Atlantic that analysts are calling an Atlantic Niña.
- NOAA’s 2026 seasonal outlook projects a below‑normal Atlantic hurricane season with eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes, reflecting El Niño’s influence on wind shear.
- The two anomalies reduce Atlantic storm odds through different mechanisms: El Niño raises vertical wind shear across the Atlantic and the Atlantic Niña cools local sea‑surface temperatures, cutting heat and moisture needed for convection.
- The Pacific is already more active this year with multiple named storms such as Tropical Storm Elida, while the Atlantic has produced only Tropical Storm Arthur by mid‑July and the NHC is tracking two low‑probability disturbances.
- Scientists say the Atlantic Niña must persist through overlapping seasons to be formally classified, and its continued presence would reinforce lower Atlantic cyclone risk, alter Indian monsoon rainfall and require sustained monitoring and preparedness.