Overview
- Forecast centers say El Niño is increasingly likely to form between May and July, with NOAA putting the odds at 61% and several model ensembles pointing to very strong peak conditions later in 2026.
- Recent projections from NOAA and ECMWF include scenarios where central Pacific sea surface temperatures rise 2.5°C to 4°C above average by late fall, though forecasters stress there is wide spread in the models.
- Ocean readings already meet early El Niño thresholds in the central Pacific, and a large subsurface warm pool plus recent bursts of westerly winds suggest more surface warming is primed in the months ahead.
- Researchers said Tuesday that fires have already burned more than 150 million hectares this year and warned that a strong El Niño would raise the risk of severe wildfires, dangerous smoke, crop losses and flooding in vulnerable regions.
- Typical El Niño patterns would likely dampen Atlantic hurricane formation while boosting Eastern Pacific storms and steering a wetter storm track across the southern United States, yet scientists caution that regional outcomes and peak strength remain uncertain due to the spring predictability barrier.