Overview
- Forecasters now put the chance of a very strong El Niño this winter above 90 percent and give substantial odds it could be one of the strongest events since records began, with peak impacts expected in late 2026 and into early 2027.
- A Science study using Galápagos coral cores finds El Niño variability has increased roughly 36 percent since the preindustrial era and uses climate model comparisons to attribute that increase to human‑caused warming.
- Ocean indicators already show extreme eastern‑Pacific heat, with the Niño‑3.4 weekly index exceeding the 2.0°C 'very strong' threshold and readings peaking near +2.7°C in mid‑August.
- Early 2026 impacts tied to the developing event include a far below‑normal Indian monsoon, flash floods and glacial collapses in the Himalaya region, disruptions to fisheries and shipping drafts, and rising warnings from aid agencies about crop losses and hunger risks.
- The event raises compound risks because El Niño shifts the odds of regional weather rather than guarantees outcomes, interacts with other climate modes and supply shocks, and could strain disaster response, food systems and government budgets worldwide.