Overview
- The Atlantic has produced only two short-lived named storms by early August, and their combined accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is far below normal.
- Forecasters and researchers point to a strengthening El Niño as the main cause because it increases upper-level wind shear that tears apart developing storms.
- Saharan dust and episodic dry air are adding to the suppression by reducing moisture over the Main Development Region.
- Near-record warm sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf and along the U.S. East Coast mean localized coastal or Gulf impacts remain possible even with overall basin quiet.
- Major forecast models show little organized development in the near term and meteorologists are watching Colorado State University’s Aug. 5 outlook and the mid‑August ENSO update for any change in the season’s outlook.