Overview
- Coverage on May 27 emphasized NOAA and other forecasters projecting a below‑normal 2026 Atlantic season as a strengthening 'super' El Niño takes hold.
- Sea‑surface temperatures in the Gulf and Caribbean are among the warmest on record for May and Eastern Pacific waters off Mexico are about 2–3°C above average, creating local conditions more favorable for early storms.
- Longer‑range models and experimental AI ensembles have signaled possible areas of low pressure just north of the Yucatán and off southwestern Mexico in early June, but those signals remain tentative.
- Forecasters say vertical wind shear tied to El Niño is the key control and that confidence in any development will not be strong until three to five days before formation.
- Officials caution that a below‑normal season does not eliminate landfall risk and urge coastal communities to watch official NHC updates and short‑range forecasts as June begins.