Overview
- Official forecasts from international agencies and climate models now place a high likelihood on a very strong or "super" El Niño forming in the tropical Pacific and peaking late in 2026 with effects likely to extend into early 2027.
- Scientists warn the event will increase chances of extreme heat, drought, heavy rain and floods across different regions, which in turn raises risks for crop losses and water shortages.
- India is already reporting impacts tied to monsoon disruption, with the agriculture ministry naming 111 high‑priority districts and Mumbai’s lakes reported near 9% capacity, prompting local water restrictions and power cuts.
- Economists say the weather shock is combining with supply disruptions from the Iran conflict to create a "double squeeze" for Asian economies through higher fuel and fertilizer costs and risks to shipping routes.
- Policymakers are being urged to coordinate on food and fuel policy, avoid unilateral export bans that would worsen shortages, and prepare targeted support to reduce the chance of sharp price spikes and social unrest.