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Super Bowl Weekend Pushes Prediction Markets Into the Spotlight as CFTC Retreats From Ban and NFL Blocks Ads

A federal pivot toward permissive rules has enabled nationwide sports event contracts even where sportsbooks are illegal.

Overview

  • CFTC chair Michael Selig said last week the agency will withdraw its 2024 proposal to prohibit political and sports contracts and instead draft clearer rules supporting lawful prediction markets.
  • The NFL will not permit prediction‑market commercials during Super Bowl LX, following executive Jeff Miller’s December warnings about integrity risks and the lack of traditional sportsbook safeguards.
  • Trading has surged to hundreds of millions of dollars across platforms, with Kalshi alone reporting more than $166 million on its Super Bowl winner market and a wide slate of props and “combo” contracts.
  • Platforms say they are federally regulated exchanges, but multiple states are challenging that view; Arizona issued cease‑and‑desist letters, and South Carolina still deems the activity illegal despite residents being able to use the apps.
  • Integrity and consumer risks remain a flashpoint, with Kalshi citing in‑house surveillance and an IC360 partnership, while addiction experts and researchers warn that easy nationwide access could harm young men.