Overview
- NOAA confirms a series of four X-class eruptions within about 24 hours, including an X8-class flare late on Feb. 1, alongside dozens of M-class events from Active Region 4366.
- Modeling indicates the CME linked to the X8 flare will likely deliver a glancing impact late on Feb. 5 UTC, with G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions possible.
- Shortwave radio experienced R3-level blackouts over the South Pacific during the X-class flares, disrupting signals in eastern Australia and New Zealand.
- Particle monitors show elevated high‑energy electrons and no confirmed major solar proton event, while solar wind at L1 remains quiet ahead of the expected CME arrival.
- Space‑weather agencies report AR4366 has a beta‑gamma‑delta configuration and continues to expand, with forecasts citing high odds of additional M‑class flares and a chance of more X‑class activity.