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Successive Crises Since 2020 Cost Germany €940 Billion, IW Estimates

IW bases the estimate on a no-crisis growth trend from prior decades.

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Die Krisen schlagen inzwischen auch auf die Produktion durch
Die Krisen der vergangenen Jahre haben Deutschland einer Studie zufolge in den vergangenen Jahren fast eine Billion Euro - also tausend Milliarden - gekostet.

Overview

  • Germany’s cumulative real-GDP shortfall for 2020–2025 totals about €940 billion, according to the employer-aligned Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft.
  • The institute calculates a loss of well over €20,000 in value added per employed person from the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and U.S. trade barriers.
  • Roughly one quarter of the total loss is assigned to 2025, a year marked by tariff disputes with the administration of U.S. President Donald Trump.
  • Official data show 2025 real GDP rose just 0.2%, leaving activity hovering around the 2019 level after years of stagnation.
  • IW says the cumulative hit surpasses earlier shocks, estimating about €360 billion for 2001–2004 and €525 billion for the 2008–2009 financial crisis, as economists warn of declining living standards.