Overview
- The peer‑reviewed research by Ulf Büntgen and Martin Bauch, published in Communications Earth & Environment, argues a volcanic event set off the chain that brought plague to Europe.
- Ice‑core sulphur peaks and tree‑ring records indicate an eruption around 1345 followed by unusually cold, wet summers through 1347, while the specific volcano remains unidentified and likely tropical.
- Contemporary sources describe failed harvests and hunger across the Mediterranean, pushing Venice, Genoa and Pisa to secure emergency grain supplies from the Black Sea in 1347, including agreements with the Golden Horde.
- The study links those grain convoys to the arrival of Yersinia pestis in Mediterranean ports via fleas and rodents, with initial outbreaks concentrated where shipments landed and cities like Milan and Rome likely spared early on.
- The authors present the episode as a cautionary case of climate shocks interacting with trade networks to elevate zoonotic pandemic risk in a globalized world.