Overview
- The Tsinghua-led analysis, currently a preprint, models a possible Moon impact on 22 December 2032 by a roughly 60‑meter asteroid while ruling out an Earth strike.
- If an impact occurs, estimates point to about 6.5 megatons of energy, a crater near 1 kilometer wide and ~150 meters deep, and an impact speed around 14.1 km/s.
- Predicted observables include a minutes-long optical flash brighter than Venus, hours to days of infrared afterglow, and a magnitude ~5.0–5.1 moonquake detectable by modern seismometers.
- Simulations project on the order of 100 million kilograms of lunar ejecta, with a small fraction reaching Earth over years as meteors and a possible satellite hazard from larger fragments that would mostly burn up.
- Viewing conditions are expected to favor East Asia, the Pacific and Hawaii, and a close approach in 2028 is expected to refine the orbit and update the impact probability.