Overview
- The analysis points to a possible lunar impact on December 22, 2032, while current calculations indicate no credible threat to Earth.
- The asteroid, estimated at roughly 60–100 meters wide, was discovered by the NASA-funded ATLAS survey and has been tracked with ground and space telescopes, including JWST.
- If a collision occurs, models indicate a short, bright flash potentially visible from Earth, followed by hours of infrared emission from the hot impact site.
- The study projects a crater about a kilometer across, a lunar quake around magnitude 5.0, and up to roughly one million tonnes of ejecta that could pose risks to satellites.
- Scientists expect impact probabilities and effect forecasts to change as further measurements become available, with a key observing window opening in 2028 after earlier Earth-impact concerns were dismissed.