Overview
- Initial assessments that briefly flagged a greater than 1% Earth impact risk have been revised, and the current consensus places Earth risk near zero.
- James Webb Space Telescope observations from 2025 estimate the asteroid’s diameter at roughly 53–67 meters, about the size of a midrise building.
- The arXiv analysis projects a potential 22 December 2032 lunar impact that would release about 6.5 megatons of energy and excavate a crater roughly one kilometer wide.
- Models suggest the strike could eject on the order of 100 million kilograms of lunar material, with a small fraction potentially reaching Earth as meteors and elevating risks to satellites and orbital traffic.
- Scientists are weighing a possible deflection to protect space infrastructure against preserving a rare scientific event, with new observations in 2028 expected to tighten the trajectory and probabilities.