Overview
- A team led by Valentin Portmann at the University of Bordeaux reports in Science Advances that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could weaken by about 40 to 60 percent by the end of the century.
- The AMOC is the ocean system that includes the Gulf Stream and carries warm water north, which helps keep Western Europe milder.
- The study re-evaluated existing simulations and found that models that best match observed South Atlantic surface salinity point to a much larger decline.
- The authors say a steeper drop would shift heat transport, disrupt tropical rain belts, and raise sea levels along parts of the North Atlantic, which would force changes in adaptation plans.
- Coverage highlights concern that the system may be nearer a tipping point, while scientists note the finding reflects model analysis and not direct evidence of a collapse.