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Study Finds Vocational Dropouts Deeply Cut Earnings for Disadvantaged Youth in Germany

Researchers say unequal access to second‑chance training explains the gap.

Overview

  • The joint investigation by the IAB and partner institutes, reported Tuesday, finds socially disadvantaged dropouts lose about 45% of income over the next ten years.
  • Among disadvantaged youths, completers averaged €153,000 across ten years, while dropouts earned about €82,000.
  • Youths from better‑off families who leave training reach similar long‑run incomes as graduates because they more often return to training through second‑chance routes.
  • Across all dropouts who left for another attractive option, average ten‑year earnings were about half those of comparable graduates.
  • Researchers drew on records for about 650,000 apprentices and reviewed only cases who switched training or took jobs that did not require the credential.