Overview
- The peer‑reviewed Science Advances study from Boston University used a model trained on hospital COVID‑19 death certificates to identify similar, likely missed deaths outside hospitals.
- Researchers estimate 995,787 U.S. COVID‑19 deaths occurred from March 2020 through December 2021 versus 840,251 recorded, a shortfall of about 155,536 or roughly 19%.
- Unrecognized deaths were disproportionately among Hispanic, American Indian and Alaska Native, Asian, and Black people, and among those with less education, lower incomes, or poorer baseline health.
- The undercount was most pronounced in the South, with a 31% regional gap and notably high ratios in Alabama, Oklahoma, and South Carolina.
- The largest monthly surge of untallied deaths was in January 2021 at about 35,000, with undercounting continuing into late 2021, and authors point to scarce early testing and weaknesses in local death investigation systems.