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Study Finds National Guard Did Not Cut Violent Crime in Washington

The report ties the troop surge mainly to lower opportunistic property theft and raises questions about the deployment's cost as officials move to keep or add forces through 2029.

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Overview

  • The Niskanen Center released the report Thursday and found no measurable reduction in violent crime after the August 2025 Guard deployment but estimated a roughly 24 percent drop in opportunistic property theft in tourist areas.
  • Researchers said the Guard was largely posted in visible tourist and transit corridors where a uniformed presence deters theft but cannot easily interrupt interpersonal violence rooted in neighborhood disputes.
  • The study called the operation expensive, estimating at least $185 million in costs and noting per-soldier daily expenses near $607 compared with about $384 per MPD officer per day.
  • Local policing shifts appear to explain much of the broader crime decline: MPD concentrated hotspot, proactive patrols and raised its arrest rate by about 40 percent during the same period, and national crime trends also moved downward.
  • Officials are pressing ahead despite the findings, with the Pentagon planning to retain troops through January 2029 and the U.S. Marshals Service seeking 1,500 more Guardsmen for a planned summer surge, while the White House defended the deployment.