Overview
- A peer‑reviewed paper published June 1, 2026 in Electoral Studies reports that supporters of losing parties express lower generalized trust in other citizens after national elections.
- The effect appears only after federal contests and not after provincial or district races, suggesting voters treat national outcomes as information about the broader public.
- Voters who are highly affectively polarized—those who strongly like their own party and strongly dislike rivals—show the largest declines in trust, with analyses estimating losers were about 3.8 percentage points less likely to say most people can be trusted.
- The team analyzed survey data from roughly 30,000 respondents collected across six national and 11 subnational Canadian elections from 2004 to 2024 and notes the study is observational and cannot definitively prove causation.
- Lead author Mark Williamson warned the pattern could strain social cohesion as partisan animosity grows and the researchers plan a follow‑up project to study how the election of politicians from racial or ethnic outgroups, including Wab Kinew’s 2023 win, shapes attitudes.