Overview
- Published in Geophysical Research Letters, the analysis identifies a clear speed‑up in warming beginning around 2013–2015 across NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth and ECMWF datasets.
- The recent rate contrasts with roughly 0.18–0.2°C per decade from 1970 to 2015, with the past decade assessed as the fastest since instrumental records began in 1880.
- The study filters out influences from El Niño, volcanic aerosols and solar cycles to isolate the underlying anthropogenic trend behind record‑hot years.
- If the current pace continues, researchers say the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C threshold could be exceeded before 2030, though the study does not attribute specific causes.
- Scientists widely discuss reduced aerosol cooling from post‑2020 shipping fuel rules as a likely contributor, while experts including Zeke Hausfather and Michael Mann urge caution about the exact magnitude and persistence of the acceleration.